The national average price of gasoline in the United States crossed $4 per gallon on March 31, 2026, according to AAA data reported by CNBC, up 35% from $2.98 the day before the Iran war began on February 28. Diesel climbed to $5.45 per gallon, a 45% rise. Across the Atlantic, British drivers hit even harder numbers: petrol reached 152.83p per litre in March, equivalent to roughly $7.74 per gallon, the largest single-month price increase on record, while diesel jumped to 182.77p per litre (about $9.25 per gallon). On both sides of the market, the same response is showing up in the data: buyers are searching for electric vehicles in numbers not seen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Car-shopping platform Edmunds tracked electrified vehicle research, covering battery EVs, plug-in hybrids, and hybrids, climbing from 20.7% of all vehicle research activity the week before the war to 22.4% the week of March 2, then to 23.8% the week of March 9-15, the highest weekly level of 2026, according to CNBC and Car Dealership Guy. In the UK, Autotrader recorded a 28% jump in new EV leads and a 15% rise in used EV leads since February 28. At $4 per gallon, analysts say American car shoppers historically start comparing fuel costs seriously. They are doing exactly that right now.
The U.S. Math at $4 Gas
For American drivers, the fuel cost gap between a gas car and a home-charged EV has widened materially since February 28. At the national average residential electricity rate of around $0.17 per kWh, a typical EV costs approximately $0.05 per mile to charge at home. A gas car averaging 30 mpg costs about $0.13 per mile at $4 per gallon, according to Kelley Blue Book’s March 2026 analysis. For a driver logging 12,000 miles a year, that gap is roughly $960 annually in fuel alone before accounting for lower EV maintenance costs.
One Detroit driver quoted by PBS News, Kevin Ketels, bought a 2026 Chevrolet Blazer EV before the war began. His assessment of the situation now: “Electricity can go up, but it won’t go up nearly as much as gas will and it won’t go up nearly as fast, either.” Electricity rates are set annually by regulators, insulating most U.S. households from month-to-month oil shocks. That structural insulation is the point. The 35% gas spike happened in five weeks. Residential electricity rates did not move.
There is a catch the Edmunds interest data does not show. The Trump administration eliminated the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in September 2025, raising the effective purchase price of every new EV overnight. The average new car in the U.S. now costs over $49,000 according to Kelley Blue Book. An EV buyer who wants to capitalize on $4 gas faces a higher entry price by $7,500 than they would have a year ago, with no federal cushion. That friction is likely keeping some of the Edmunds interest from converting to sales.
The UK Situation Is More Acute and Further Along
British drivers face a sharper version of the same problem. Petrol hit 152.83p per litre (roughly $7.74/gallon) by end of March, up 20p from 132.83p when the war began, the largest single-month rise ever recorded. Diesel reached 182.77p per litre, a 40p jump and nearly double the previous monthly record. The RAC Foundation calculated that UK drivers collectively paid £307 million (approximately $389 million) more for fuel than they otherwise would have between February 27 and March 23 alone.
Coinciding with that pump shock, Octopus Energy cut its Intelligent Octopus Go overnight EV charging rate from around 11.5p per kWh to 8p per kWh effective April 1, roughly $0.10/kWh, with regional rates in some areas running as low as 3.5p/kWh (about $0.04/kWh). The UK government’s decision to remove its Energy Company Obligation levy and other green charges from electricity bills enabled the cut. The result: charging a typical EV overnight in the UK now costs around £3.50 (about $4.43), against more than £100 ($127) to fill an average family car. Driving 100 miles in an EV costs roughly £1 to £2 ($1.27 to $2.53) versus approximately £18 ($22.79) in a petrol car, according to Fraser Brown, owner of Browns of Richmond, a used-EV dealership in North Yorkshire that has seen queues of 15 people on recent Saturday afternoons. The Times reported queues outside his dealership as buyers respond to the price gap in real time.
Polestar CEO Michael Lohscheller put it plainly to The Times: “range anxiety” is being replaced by “pump anxiety” as fossil-fuel prices surge. Octopus Electric Vehicles, the leasing arm of the energy supplier, separately reported EV leasing inquiries up 36% since the conflict began, according to CNBC.
The 2022 False Peak Is the Right Benchmark to Apply Right Now
The critical context for interpreting both the U.S. and UK interest spikes is what happened after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Gas prices spiked then too. EV search traffic jumped. Sales barely moved. Autotrader’s own chief customer officer Ian Plummer acknowledged it directly in his March 26 release: “Previous peaks in interest like in 2022 haven’t led to sustained increases in electric purchases.”
The question is whether anything is structurally different in 2026. In the UK, the answer is yes on balance: the Octopus tariff cut means home charging costs fell at exactly the moment pump prices spiked, a combination that did not exist in 2022. In the U.S., the situation is less favorable. The $7,500 tax credit is gone. New EV prices are near historic highs. The used EV market offers better value, and the UK data on used EV supply building steadily through 2025 has a U.S. parallel: a three-year-old Chevrolet Bolt, once a $27,000 car, is now available for under $15,000. That is where interest is more likely to convert to actual transactions.
Western Automakers Exited the EV Market Just Before Consumers Needed It
The strategic timing problem facing Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis could not be more visible. Those three manufacturers collectively booked roughly $53 billion in EV-related writedowns since late 2025, canceling models and cutting production just as $4 gas is driving consumers toward electric alternatives. We covered the full strategic picture in “Western Automakers’ EV Retreat Hands China a Structural Advantage That Gets Harder to Reverse Every Quarter.”
In the UK specifically, BYD overtook Tesla in year-to-date sales in October 2025, a market shift we reported when it happened. A British buyer walking into a showroom this week is considerably more likely to be handed a BYD or Polestar brochure than anything from a Detroit brand. The same dynamic is beginning to show in the U.S., where BYD is excluded by 100% tariffs but where consumers are already asking questions that domestic brands cannot fully answer at current price points.
EVXL’s Take
The pattern across both markets is the same: interest spikes, but conversion depends on whether the structural conditions exist to support it. In the UK, two conditions improved simultaneously — pump costs up sharply, home charging costs down sharply. That is a more potent combination than 2022. In the U.S., only one side of that equation moved. The tax credit elimination and high new-car prices are a real headwind that the Edmunds search data cannot overcome on its own.
The other variable nobody is talking about honestly: the Iran conflict could de-escalate faster than energy markets currently assume. Oil prices have already retreated from the $119/barrel peak to around $100-102. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens to normal shipping within 60 to 90 days, gas could fall back toward $3 and the urgency dissipates. The buyers who were energized by $4 gas do not necessarily complete their EV purchase when prices drop. This happened in 2022 and there is no structural reason it cannot happen again.
My prediction: UK battery-electric vehicle registrations will show a 20 to 30% year-on-year jump in Q2 2026 data, driven primarily by used car transactions and leasing. In the U.S., the conversion rate will be lower, held back by pricing and the tax credit gap. But the used EV market will outperform new EV sales this quarter, and any dealer who stocked affordable used EVs in March is going to be very happy with their April numbers.
FAQ
How much has gas risen in the U.S. since the Iran war began?
The national average crossed $4.02 per gallon on March 31, 2026, according to AAA, up from $2.98 the day before the war began on February 28, a 35% increase in five weeks. Diesel reached $5.45 per gallon. California hit $5.87 per gallon for regular gas.
How much has UK petrol risen since the Iran war began?
Petrol rose 20p per litre in March 2026 alone, from 132.83p to 152.83p (roughly $7.74/gallon), the largest single-month increase on record. Diesel jumped 40p, to 182.77p per litre (about $9.25/gallon), nearly double the previous record monthly rise.
How does EV charging cost compare to gas in the U.S. right now?
At the U.S. national average residential electricity rate of around $0.17 per kWh, home charging an EV costs approximately $0.05 per mile. A 30 mpg gas car at $4 per gallon costs about $0.13 per mile. For someone driving 12,000 miles a year, that is roughly $960 in annual fuel savings from home charging alone, before accounting for lower maintenance costs.
Did the 2022 Ukraine war also cause an EV interest spike?
Yes. Gas prices spiked and EV search traffic jumped in both the U.S. and UK after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Neither country saw a sustained increase in EV purchases follow. The difference in the UK in 2026 is that home charging costs fell simultaneously with pump prices rising, a combination that did not exist in 2022. In the U.S., the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit in September 2025 is a meaningful additional headwind that was not present during the 2022 spike.
EVXL uses automated tools to support research and source retrieval. All reporting and editorial perspectives are by Haye Kesteloo.
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