Rivian Q4 Earnings Beat Wall Street As R2 Delivery Guidance Stuns Analysts

The last time Rivian beat earnings expectations, in November 2025, October EV sales were already in freefall. The stock popped, the headlines cheered, and then reality showed up in the form of a 31% Q4 delivery plunge. Today’s Q4 report reads differently. Not because the backward-looking numbers are pretty, but because the forward-looking guidance just put Wall Street’s most bearish analysts on notice.

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) reported Q4 2025 results Thursday evening that beat expectations on both revenue and adjusted loss, then projected 62,000 to 67,000 vehicle deliveries for 2026. That is a 47% to 59% increase over 2025’s 42,247 deliveries. CEO RJ Scaringe confirmed R2 customer deliveries will begin in Q2 2026.

• The numbers: Revenue of $1.29 billion beat the $1.26 billion estimate. Adjusted loss of $0.54 per share came in well below the $0.68 expected.
• The surprise: Rivian expects more than 22,000 R2 deliveries in 2026, nearly double the 13,400 Wall Street had modeled.
• What it costs: Capital spending will hit $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion this year. The adjusted EBITDA loss is guided at $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion.

Rivian’s Q4 numbers tell two different stories

Rivian delivered 9,745 vehicles in Q4 2025, down 31% year-over-year from 14,183 in Q4 2024 and down 26% from Q3’s tax-credit-inflated 13,201 deliveries. Revenue fell to $1.286 billion from $1.734 billion a year earlier. Automotive revenue specifically cratered 45%, from $1.52 billion to $839 million, driven by a $270 million collapse in regulatory credit sales, lower deliveries after the September 30 tax credit expiration, and lower average selling prices.

But the other half of Rivian’s business looks nothing like that. Software and services revenue hit $447 million, up 109% year-over-year, driven almost entirely by the Volkswagen joint venture. For the full year, software and services revenue reached $1.557 billion, up 222% from $484 million in 2024. That VW money is what pushed Rivian to its first annual gross profit: $144 million in 2025 versus a $1.2 billion gross loss in 2024.

Scaringe told Reuters that R1T, R1S, and electric delivery van volumes would remain “largely flat” from 2025 levels. “The growth is really, of course, what we see in R2,” he said. That implies more than 22,000 R2 deliveries in 2026, well above the 13,400 Wall Street was expecting.

The R2 launch variant starts expensive, and the $45,000 base remains a mystery

Rivian confirmed the R2’s launch variant will be a well-equipped Dual-Motor AWD model with the largest battery pack. The company completed its first manufacturing validation builds in mid-January using production tools at the Normal, Illinois plant. Scaringe told analysts that additional R2 details, including model lineup and pricing, will be released on March 12.

What he did not say is when the $45,000 base model arrives. The launch variant is the high-performance, dual-motor version. Other trims follow later. Scaringe declined to specify when the entry-level price point will actually be available to buyers. That matters. The $45,000 R2 is a direct Tesla Model Y competitor, but if the initial models ship at $55,000 or $60,000, the competitive framing changes entirely.

Rivian’s stock surged more than 15% in after-hours trading Thursday, closing the regular session at $14 before the spike. Investors are betting that the R2 transforms Rivian from a low-volume luxury maker into a legitimate mass-market competitor. The current R1T and R1S average around $88,500, which limits the buyer pool to wealthy early adopters.

Rivian’s cash position is shrinking faster than the headline suggests

Rivian ended Q4 with $6.08 billion in cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments, and restricted cash. That is down from $7.09 billion at the end of Q3 and $7.70 billion at the end of 2024. Total liquidity stands at roughly $6.59 billion, according to the company.

Free cash flow in Q4 was negative $1.144 billion, the worst quarter of 2025 by a wide margin. For the full year, operating cash burn was $779 million, with $1.71 billion in capital expenditures on top of that. The 2026 guidance of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion in capex means spending is actually accelerating as Rivian ramps R2 production and builds out its Georgia factory.

Rivian is set to receive $2 billion from Volkswagen this year as part of their technology joint venture. Scaringe told analysts the company will be “opportunistic with regards to raising additional capital” as it burns cash through the R2 launch. That language is a polite way of saying more dilution is coming.

The post-tax credit market tested Rivian, and Q4 was the low point

Q4 2025 was the first full quarter without the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, and the numbers showed it. Rivian’s automotive gross profit flipped to a $59 million loss from $110 million in positive territory a year earlier. Full-year deliveries of 42,247 vehicles fell 18% from 2024’s 51,579. As we covered in our annual EV sales analysis, the September 30 deadline cleaved the market in two: Q3 was artificially inflated by credit-seekers, and Q4 paid the price.

The broader industry context has only gotten harsher since then. Traditional automakers have retreated from EV commitments following the Trump administration’s policy changes, including tariffs on auto parts and the removal of penalties for combustion vehicle manufacturers that miss emissions standards.

Andrew Rocco, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, told Reuters: “In other words, Rivian is focused on shifting from a luxury brand to a high-volume mass market player. So investors are betting they can get the R2 up to scale.”

EVXL’s Take

We’ve been tracking Rivian’s make-or-break R2 timeline for over a year. Back in November, we covered Scaringe’s claim that Tesla’s 50% market share proved an “underserved market.” In January, we reported on the Q4 delivery collapse and the Wall Street bull-bear civil war over whether Rivian could survive until the R2 arrived. Today’s guidance answers that question provisionally: they have the cash, the VW backing, and the production timeline to get there.

But the uncomfortable math hasn’t changed. Rivian just guided to a $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion adjusted EBITDA loss for 2026. They’re launching into a market where the $7,500 credit no longer exists, where EV demand collapsed 24% in a single month after the subsidy disappeared, and where the entry-level R2 price point remains unconfirmed. Scaringe is betting the R2 can sell on merit alone. That is a different bet than selling 70,000 R2 reservations in 2024 when buyers assumed a $7,500 credit would be part of the deal.

Here is my prediction: Rivian will hit the low end of that 62,000-67,000 delivery target, not the high end. R2 production will ramp slower than Scaringe is signaling, and the base $45,000 model won’t reach customers until late 2026 at the earliest. The VW money keeps the lights on, but expect at least one more capital raise before Rivian reaches positive cash flow. Watch the March 12 R2 pricing announcement closely. That is when we will learn whether this is a genuine Model Y competitor or a $55,000 vehicle with a $45,000 promise.

Editorial Note: AI tools were used to assist with research and archive retrieval for this article. All reporting, analysis, and editorial perspectives are by Haye Kesteloo.