Electric trucks are transforming China’s heavy-duty vehicle market, with sales surging 175% in the first half of 2025 to reach 76,100 units, accounting for about 25% of all new truck sales. This rapid shift, fueled by subsidies and expanding charging networks, is cutting diesel consumption and pushing forward the timeline for peak oil demand in the world’s largest crude importer, according to a Reuters report.

Sales Surge and Market Share Gains

New energy trucks, dominated by electric models, now hold a significant portion of China’s truck market. Electric variants make up over 90% of these sales, mainly for short-haul operations in ports, mines, and steel mills. Analysts at Sublime China Information (SCI) estimate this growth has outpaced expectations, leading to downward revisions in diesel demand forecasts.

The transport sector, which consumes about two-thirds of China’s diesel, faces major changes. Rystad Energy projects a 40% drop in diesel use by this sector by 2030, reducing overall consumption by roughly a quarter from 2024 levels. SCI forecasts a 6.3% decline in diesel use for 2025, amounting to 11.3 million tons, matching the drop seen last year.

This uptake surprises experts. Ye Lin, vice president at Rystad Energy, stated, “The surge in electric heavy trucks was a surprise and has become a new factor accelerating China’s oil consumption to peak, most likely this year.” Previously, Lin anticipated the peak in 2026, but electric truck adoption has accelerated it.

Charging Infrastructure Expands

Improved charging networks support this transition. Providers like Teld have built over 2,400 truck charging stations nationwide. In March 2025, Teld opened an 800 km (497 miles) corridor connecting Shanxi and Shandong provinces, a vital route in China’s coal region.

Truck drivers report noticeable gains in convenience. Li Shuai, a 38-year-old driver for a cement plant in Hebei province, switched from diesel to electric six months ago after more than six years on diesel trucks. He noted, “Charging infrastructure has improved noticeably in the past half year, making things much more convenient.” Li added, “It is even possible to drive an empty truck more than 2,000 km from Beijing to Yunnan to pick up goods without worry,” which translates to over 1,243 miles.

At charging sites, adaptations occur quickly. Yongji Liu, owner of a station near the Hebei cement plant, originally focused on electric cars but expanded services. He explained, “the electric truck market is growing so fast that we also installed chargers for trucks.” Challenges persist, including charge times up to 90 minutes and limited availability in some areas, but industrial corridors see the fastest buildouts.

Cost Benefits Drive Adoption

Government subsidies of up to 95,000 yuan ($13,264) per vehicle, introduced in July 2024, combined with low electricity prices, make electric trucks appealing. While diesel models cost less initially, their higher fuel expenses add up over time.

Calculations from GL Consulting show that after 1 million km (621,371 miles) of driving, diesel trucks total about 2.25 million yuan ($314,000) including fuel—10% more than liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks and 15% more than electrics. Rising fuel costs have reduced LNG’s edge, with SCI reporting a 15% drop in LNG truck sales to 92,000 units in the first half of 2025.

Truck manufacturers highlight profitability for businesses. Zhaoting Yue, vice president of international marketing at Sany, China’s second-largest electric truck maker, said, “We expect electric heavy trucks to account for 70% to 80% of new sales within as little as two to three years, driven by lower operating costs and more comprehensive charging infrastructure.”

Broader Industry and Economic Impacts

This shift follows China’s electric car boom and earlier LNG truck growth, amid slower economic expansion that curbs oil demand. Electric trucks reduce operational costs for fleet operators, enhancing efficiency in logistics and mining.

Regulatory support through subsidies accelerates deployment, but infrastructure gaps in remote areas could slow progress. Economically, lower diesel use eases import pressures, as China leads global crude purchases. Analysts like SCI’s Xu Lei have trimmed diesel forecasts by 1%-2% due to this trend.

Overall, electric trucks signal a pivot in heavy transport, promising reduced emissions and fuel savings while challenging traditional diesel dominance. As charging expands and costs fall, adoption may reshape global oil markets sooner than expected.

Photo courtesy of Sany / X