Tesla’s Bumpy Road: Expected Shortfall in Q3 2023 Deliveries

Tesla, the pioneering electric car manufacturer, is expected to face a hiccup in its Q3 2023 delivery estimates, predicts Baird. Here's a deeper look into what lies behind the numbers and why the market shouldn't lose faith just yet.

A Setback for Tesla? Baird Anticipates a Miss on Q3 Delivery Goals

According to data gathered by FactSet, the general analyst consensus had pegged 's Q3 2023 deliveries at a whopping 462,000 units. However, disruptions in production might have other plans.

“The temporary factory shutdowns during Q3 2023 might affect Tesla's delivery expectations,” revealed Baird analyst Ben Kallo in a report by Barron's.

Specifically, production at Tesla's Texas gigafactory took a breather as the company revamped its and Cybertruck assembly lines. That wasn't all. Tesla also hit the pause button at its Fremont Factory earlier in July.

While naysayers might point to demand issues, Tesla has been vocal about not facing any. “The company does not have a demand issue,” they've emphasized. Still, Kallo's calculations suggest a possible delivery result of 493,200 for Q3 – a 6% drop compared to the prior quarter.

To provide context, in Q2 2023, Tesla had rolled out close to 480,000 cars, delivering over 466,000 of them. A majority, 460,211 to be precise, were their popular and Model Y electric vehicles. The remaining consisted of 19,225 deliveries of their premium and vehicles.

In stark contrast, Q1 2023 had seen Tesla produce over 440,000 units, handing over the keys to more than 422,000 electric vehicles to their new owners.

Yet, it's not all doom and gloom. Kallo reportedly remains optimistic about Tesla's future. The Model 3's rising demand in 's Highlands region is anticipated to bolster sales in the long haul.

Moreover, price hikes for the Model 3 and Model Y are expected to buoy margins. Kallo maintains a confident outlook for Tesla, retaining his $300 TSLA target price and an ‘Outperform' rating for the stock.


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Haye Kesteloo
Haye Kesteloo

Haye Kesteloo is the Editor in Chief and Founder of EVXL.co, where he covers all electric vehicle-related news, covering brands such as Tesla, Ford, GM, BMW, Nissan and others. He fulfills a similar role at the drone news site DroneXL.co. Haye can be reached at haye @ evxl.co or @hayekesteloo.

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