Morgan Stanley has done the math on Tesla’s plan to open its Supercharger network to other automakers, a move that could transform the electric vehicle maker into the future’s dominant “filling station.” The analysis takes into account Tesla’s unique combination of renewable energy, large-scale storage capabilities, and its groundbreaking Supercharger business.
Analyst Adam Jonas and his team reportedly proposed a scenario where Tesla produces its own electricity at nearly zero marginal cost, stored on-site with stationary batteries. Using estimates including 8% of all U.S. miles driven by electric vehicles in 2030 and a 20% Supercharging market share, they then calculated potential profits.
In what Morgan Stanley dubbed the “reasonable case,” with 10% EV mile penetration, a 50% Tesla share of Supercharging, and a 30% net operating profit after tax margin, the Supercharging business could add $3 per share to Tesla’s value.
The “plausible case” scenario anticipates a 20% EV mile penetration, 70% Tesla share of Supercharging, and a 50% net profit margin. This would lead to a potential net present value of $14 per share.
In a more ambitious “dominant case,” with 30% EV mile penetration, 80% Tesla share of Supercharging, and 70% net profit margin, the value could soar to $33 per share.
Finally, in the “monopoly case” that foresees 50% EV mile penetration, total Tesla control of Supercharging, and an 80% net profit margin, Tesla’s Supercharger business could potentially add an astounding $78 per share.
Despite the optimistic projections, Tesla’s stock dipped 3.20% to $248.41 in premarket trading on Thursday, following a 13-session winning streak that ended with a 0.74% dip on Wednesday. But with Morgan Stanley’s analysis shedding light on the potential of Tesla’s Supercharging business, the EV pioneer could well be powering up for an exciting future.