Gasoline-only cars made up 49% of global new-vehicle sales in the first half of 2026, the first time they have fallen below half of the market. The figure comes from automotive data firm Mobility Global, as reported by Nikkei Asia on October 2. Buyers took 20.25 million gasoline-only cars between January and June, 10% fewer than a year earlier.

That share stood at 73% as recently as 2021. Hybrids and battery-electric cars took the ground this year after the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption pushed oil above $100 a barrel and sent fuel prices to records, a shock EVXL has tracked since U.S. gas crossed $4 a gallon in March.

American drivers paid an average of $4.33 a gallon in September, the highest September on AAA’s books. Cox Automotive expects new EVs to hold about 6% of U.S. sales this quarter. A year ago they had 10.6%.

Hybrids and Battery-Electric Cars Split the Share Gasoline Lost

Mobility Global counted 7.27 million hybrids sold worldwide in the first half, 18% of the market and up 10%. Battery-electric cars reached 6.87 million, a 17% share, up 12%. Gasoline-only sales fell hardest in China, down 26%, and in Europe, down 13%.

Nikkei’s breakdown puts the fastest battery-electric growth outside the big markets: Southeast Asia rose 81% to 350,000 and Oceania more than doubled to 110,000. China, still about half of global volume, slipped 3% to 3.44 million, and North America fell 15%.

The International Energy Agency counts plug-in hybrids as electric cars, and its numbers are less tidy. The agency’s July update to its Global EV Outlook found second-quarter electric car sales 35% above the first quarter, with sales up year over year in more than 90 countries. Australia, Brazil, India, Korea and Vietnam roughly doubled their March-to-June sales against 2025. But an almost 20% drop in China left global electric car sales about 1% below the first half of 2025, while total car sales fell around 5%.

Battery-Electric Cars Outsold Petrol in the EU Through August

EU buyers registered 1,641,333 battery-electric cars in the first eight months of 2026 and 1,634,733 petrol cars, according to ACEA, the European automakers’ association. Both hold 21.7% of the market. A year earlier petrol had 28% and battery-electric cars 15.8%.

Hybrids remain the EU’s top choice at 36.6%. In August, battery-electric registrations across the EU, the four EFTA countries and the UK rose 52.2% from a year earlier to 243,207, per ACEA’s September 24 release. Germany climbed 75.1% to 68,930. France more than doubled, up 112.8% to 36,159.

Germany has a fuel shock and a subsidy working at the same time. About one in four new cars sold there from January through August was battery-electric, and one in three in August, against 19% across 2025, the economic institute DIW Berlin said on September 30. The income-tiered purchase premium Berlin announced in January had just over 52,000 approved applications by early September, roughly 90% of them for battery-electric cars, mostly small models with low list prices. Study author Wolf-Peter Schill said many of those cars would probably have been bought without the money, and the study found German brands underrepresented among them.

U.S. New EV Share Held Near 6% as Gas Rose Nearly 40%

Cox Automotive forecasts 239,000 new EV sales in the third quarter, down about 45% from the 437,000 sold a year earlier, when buyers rushed to beat the September 30, 2025 expiration of the federal EV tax credit. New EVs have held close to 6% of the U.S. market all year.

The quarterly line is steady: about 216,000 in the first quarter and 247,000 in the second, per Cox’s third-quarter forecast update. AAA put the national average for regular at $4.41 on October 1, up from $3.16 a year earlier. Public charging held at 42 cents per kWh, AAA said. EVXL found in July that EV drivers were already saving $43 a month on fuel in nearly every state.

American buyers are answering the pump with used EVs and hybrids. Cox expects nearly 127,000 used EV sales in the third quarter, a record and up 13.3% from a year ago, helped by growing off-lease supply. Nearly one in four new vehicles sold in the second quarter was electrified, most of them hybrids.

EVXL’s Take

Expensive fuel moves buyers to electric cars when there is a cheap one to move to. Germany’s premium went mostly to small, low-priced battery-electric cars, for applicants with mostly low incomes. Outside Europe and the U.S., Chinese imports made up 55% of electric car sales in the first half, the IEA found, and their volume in Australia and New Zealand grew 140%. That is the supply behind the doubling markets.

American drivers got the same shock, $1.25 a gallon more than a year ago, and new EV share has sat near 6% for three quarters. My read is that this is a price problem, not a demand problem. The used EV record, built on off-lease cars at lower prices, shows Americans buying electric when the price fits, and the new-car market lost its credit of up to $7,500 a year ago without gaining a cheaper car to replace it. As long as that holds, the U.S. answers $4 gas with hybrids and used EVs, and the gasoline share that just broke below half worldwide stays well above it here.

Sources: Nikkei Asia, Oilprice.com, IEA, Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty, ACEA, DIW Berlin, Cox Automotive, AAA.

EVXL uses automated tools to support research and source retrieval. All reporting and editorial perspectives are by Haye Kesteloo.