Waymo’s $100 Billion Valuation Shows What Working Autonomy Is Worth vs. Tesla’s Promises

I’ve been covering the robotaxi race for years, and today’s news from Bloomberg just crystalized something we’ve been tracking at EVXL: the market has finally put a price tag on working autonomy versus promises. Waymo is raising more than $15 billion at a valuation approaching $100 billion – more than double its $45 billion valuation from just 14 months ago. That’s what 450,000 weekly paid driverless rides are worth to investors.

Here’s what you need to know:

• What: Waymo seeking $15+ billion in new funding at approximately $100 billion valuation (potentially as high as $110 billion)
• Who: Round led by parent company Alphabet, with external backers also participating
• The context: In October 2024, Waymo was valued at $45 billion – this represents a 122%+ increase in 14 months
• Why it matters: Waymo is the only major U.S. operator running paid robotaxi service with no safety drivers across multiple cities, while Tesla’s Austin and Bay Area operations still use human monitors

The funding news, first reported by Bloomberg, comes as Waymo has scaled to 450,000 weekly paid rides – nearly double the 250,000 it reported in April. That’s an annualized run rate of over 20 million trips.

The Valuation Gap Tesla Investors Need to Understand

Here’s the math that should concern anyone who bought Tesla stock partly for the robotaxi narrative.

Waymo: ~$100 billion valuation for 450,000 weekly driverless rides across five cities with no human safety operators. That works out to roughly $222,000 per weekly ride in implied valuation.

Tesla: $1.5 trillion market cap, with bulls like Cathie Wood projecting robotaxis could add $7 trillion in value by 2029. Yet Tesla’s Austin fleet consists of approximately 30 vehicles with safety supervisors onboard. The Bay Area operation runs about 120 vehicles – also with human monitors. As of mid-December, Tesla has not operated a single commercial robotaxi ride without a human safety supervisor present.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) still classifies Tesla’s Full Self-Driving as an SAE Level 2 partial automation system that “requires a fully attentive driver engaged in the driving task at all times.” That’s not a technicality – it’s a fundamental distinction that separates supervised driving assistance from actual autonomous operation.

We’ve been tracking this dynamic since April when Elon Musk slammed Waymo’s “expensive sensor suite” as a flawed business model. Musk predicted Tesla’s camera-only approach would win on economics. Seven months later, Waymo’s valuation has more than doubled while delivering nearly half a million paid rides weekly. Tesla is still promising.

What $100 Billion Buys You

The funding round validates what Waymo has actually built rather than what it’s promised:

• 450,000 weekly paid rides with no safety driver – nearly double April’s 250,000
• Commercial operations in five cities: Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta
• 14 million paid trips delivered in 2025, on track for 20 million lifetime rides by year-end
• Freeway operations launched in November across SF, Phoenix, and LA markets
• 2026 expansion plans for 12 additional U.S. cities plus international launches in London and Tokyo

This is the only major operator in the United States offering paid robotaxi services with no safety drivers or in-vehicle attendants. Amazon’s Zoox offers limited free rides in Las Vegas and San Francisco but doesn’t charge fares. Tesla’s operations still require human monitors.

When TD Cowen analysts rode in Tesla’s robotaxis last month, they paid $1.08 per mile for approximately 40 miles of autonomous driving in Austin. They described the experience as “impressive” and predicted Tesla could remove safety monitors by year-end. CEO Elon Musk has made similar predictions before – in 2019, he forecast 1 million robotaxis on the road by 2020.

The Scale Difference Is Staggering

Let me put Waymo’s operational lead in perspective:

Tesla’s Austin fleet has accumulated over 250,000 miles of autonomous driving since the June 2025 launch, while the Bay Area fleet has logged more than one million miles. But every one of those miles included a human safety supervisor ready to intervene. Waymo crossed 100 million fully autonomous miles months ago.

Just last week, Waymo launched autonomous employee rides to and from San Francisco International Airport, with public commercial service “coming soon.” Tesla hasn’t even applied for the California DMV permit required to test driverless vehicles without a human at the wheel, let alone operate a commercial service.

What Musk Got Right (And Wrong)

Musk’s criticism of Waymo’s economics isn’t entirely without merit. Tesla’s camera-only approach does cost less per vehicle. When Ford CEO Jim Farley endorsed Waymo’s LiDAR approach over Tesla’s camera-only system in June, he acknowledged the cost difference but argued LiDAR provides critical safety advantages in challenging conditions.

Tesla’s robotaxi service in Austin charges $1.08 per mile versus Waymo’s approximately $2 per mile. That’s a meaningful difference for riders. But Waymo’s rides are actually driverless. Tesla’s are not.

At Tesla’s annual meeting in November, Musk notably thanked Waymo for “paving the path here” on regulatory approvals – a significant shift from his earlier dismissiveness. That acknowledgment came as Tesla continued facing regulatory delays in California while Waymo expanded operations.

EVXL’s Take

I’ve watched this rivalry closely since Tesla announced its Austin robotaxi plans in May. The $100 billion valuation for Waymo is a watershed moment because it quantifies something we’ve been saying for months: there’s a fundamental difference between autonomous driving that works and autonomous driving that’s “coming soon.”

Here’s what I expect: Tesla will eventually remove safety monitors from its Austin fleet, possibly in early 2026. When that happens, Musk will declare victory. But Waymo will likely be delivering 600,000+ weekly rides by then, operating in 17 U.S. cities plus London, while Tesla scrambles to expand beyond two markets.

The pricing advantage Tesla touts matters only when you’re actually delivering driverless rides. Right now, Waymo is the only company in the U.S. doing that at scale. The $100 billion valuation reflects that reality.

For Tesla investors who bought into the robotaxi narrative, this should prompt some hard questions. Tesla’s $1.5 trillion market cap assumes autonomous driving will generate trillions in value. But if actual working autonomy – 450,000 weekly driverless rides across five cities – is worth $100 billion, what’s Tesla’s supervised pilot program worth?

I’m not saying Tesla can’t catch up. But the gap between promise and delivery just got a price tag, and it’s $100 billion.

Are you factoring robotaxi potential into your EV purchase decisions? Let us know in the comments.