Ford Motor Company expects a profit hit of up to $2 billion after a devastating fire at its key aluminum supplier, overshadowing third-quarter financial results that exceeded Wall Street expectations. The automaker slashed its full-year earnings guidance by up to 41% while its electric vehicle division continues bleeding over $1 billion per quarter.

For EV buyers and enthusiasts, this story reveals Ford’s real priorities during a crisis. While the company scrambles to secure aluminum for its profitable gas-powered F-150s, the all-electric F-150 Lightning remains on the back burner, with Ford openly prioritizing conventional truck production over electric models.

Supplier Fire Forces Production Cuts and Guidance Slash

The September 16 fire at Novelis Inc.‘s aluminum factory in Oswego, New York, has disrupted Ford’s most critical supplier for F-Series pickups and large SUVs like the Expedition and Lincoln Navigator. The automaker now expects full-year adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $6 billion to $6.5 billion, down from previous guidance of up to $7.5 billion.

The low end of that new range represents a 41% drop from the $10.2 billion Ford earned last year. The supplier interruption will reduce Ford’s production by 100,000 vehicles in 2025, hitting the company’s most profitable models the hardest.

“What we lost this year, we’ll gain most of it back next year,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Ford expects the Novelis factory to return to full production by late November or early December, earlier than initially feared.

Ford Plans Aggressive Production Recovery in 2026

To make up for lost ground, Ford announced plans to boost F-150 and Super Duty pickup production by 50,000 vehicles in 2026. The company will hire 1,000 workers at factories in Michigan and Kentucky to support the increase.

“We’ll be gaining a billion, if not more, of that back next year,” Farley told Bloomberg TV, noting Ford expects to mitigate at least $1 billion of the adjusted profit impact in 2026.

Chief Financial Officer Sherry House revealed the company was actually planning to raise its 2025 guidance before the fire struck. “We would have raised guidance if not for the Novelis fire,” House said, indicating Ford was on track to earn more than $8 billion before interest and taxes this year.

Strong Q3 Results Buried by Crisis Headlines

Despite the supplier chaos, Ford delivered a strong third quarter that beat analyst expectations across the board. Adjusted earnings hit 45 cents per share, topping the 36-cent average of estimates. Sales reached a record $50.5 billion, crushing the $43.7 billion analysts anticipated.

Strong sales of high-margin vehicles like the Bronco and Expedition fueled the earnings beat. Revenue grew 9%, while earnings before interest and taxes of $2.6 billion matched last year’s result despite additional tariff headwinds.

Ford’s stock rose 4.1% in after-hours trading following the results, bringing year-to-date gains to about 25%.

Trump Tariff Changes Provide Some Relief

Ford also received unexpected good news on the tariff front. The company now expects President Trump’s tariffs to result in a $1 billion financial hit, down from its earlier estimate of $2 billion.

The reduction stems from Trump’s October 17 proclamation that levied a 25% tariff on imported heavy trucks while extending a tariff discount through 2030 for automakers that produce and sell completed automobiles in the United States. The offset allows manufacturers to reduce tariff exposure on parts equal to 3.75% of vehicles they assemble domestically.

“We will benefit from this,” House said of the tariff measures. “We’re expecting similar costs to this year, next year on tariffs.”

Model e Electric Vehicle Division Loses $1.4 Billion

While Ford’s traditional gas and commercial vehicle divisions remain profitable, its Model E electric vehicle unit lost $1.4 billion in the third quarter, worse than the $1.2 billion loss in the same period last year.

The EV division is on track for losses exceeding $5 billion in 2025, continuing a troubling trend of mounting losses despite Ford’s massive investments in electrification. The company has lost approximately $12 billion from Model e since the beginning of 2023.

Ford Blue, the traditional internal combustion engine business, earned $1.5 billion before interest and taxes. Ford Pro, its commercial vehicle and logistics services division, earned nearly $2 billion, up from $1.8 billion in last year’s third quarter.

Ford unveiled plans in August for a new line of budget-priced EVs due to hit the market in 2027. CEO Farley said last month that the market for battery-powered cars in the US will be “way smaller than we thought.”

EVXL’s Take

Ford’s response to the Novelis fire reveals where the company’s priorities truly lie in 2025. While the automaker scrambles to secure aluminum and boost production of gas-powered F-150s and Super Duty trucks, the all-electric F-150 Lightning takes a back seat. Ford’s decision to prioritize conventional truck production over electric models during the shortage speaks volumes about which vehicles actually drive profits.

The Model E division’s $1.4 billion quarterly loss is particularly troubling given that Ford beat overall earnings expectations. While competitors like Tesla turn healthy profits on EVs, Ford continues hemorrhaging money on every electric vehicle it sells, with no clear path to profitability until at least 2026. The company’s admission that the EV market is “way smaller than we thought” suggests Ford may have fundamentally misjudged consumer appetite for electric trucks and SUVs at current price points.

What makes this especially frustrating for EV advocates is the timing. Just as federal EV incentives face uncertainty and charging infrastructure finally reaches critical mass in many markets, legacy automakers like Ford seem to be pulling back rather than pushing forward. The delayed budget EV lineup now targeting 2027 means Ford will essentially sit out the crucial 2025-2026 period when EVs could gain serious mainstream traction.

The silver lining? Ford’s commercial Pro division proves the company can make money on electrification when it focuses on fleet customers with predictable usage patterns rather than trying to convince retail buyers to pay premium prices for electric F-150s. Perhaps that’s where Ford’s EV strategy should have focused all along.

What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments below.