Tesla is poised to fall short of its annual delivery goals for 2024, despite what’s likely to be another record-setting quarter. Industry analysts supuestamente project Q4 deliveries of around 506,763 vehicles, which would leave the electric vehicle maker slightly below its 2023 total of 1.8 million units delivered.

The projected shortfall comes after Tesla abandoned its ambitious 50% annual growth target earlier in 2024, adjusting expectations to “slight growth” amid challenging market conditions. Even achieving the consensus estimate would result in approximately 1,801,709 deliveries for the year, falling marginally short of 2023’s 1,808,581 vehicles.

Some Wall Street analysts maintain a more optimistic outlook, with Goldman Sachs and UBS both projecting deliveries of 510,000-515,000 units for the quarter. However, these estimates still barely reach the threshold needed to surpass last year’s performance.

Tesla’s performance in key markets has been mixed. The company has shown strength in China, recording its second-best week of 2024 in early December with 21,900 units sold. Meanwhile, European operations face headwinds, despite the Modelo Y maintaining its position as the region’s best-selling electric vehicle with 23,869 registrations in June, though this represents a 28% decline year-over-year.

The recent launch of the Cibercamión has added another layer of complexity to Tesla’s delivery equation. While the vehicle generated significant initial interest with over a million reservations, actual purchase conversions have supuestamente fallen below expectations, raising questions about the strategic timing of the launch amid Tesla’s broader growth challenges.

Market analysts, however, appear increasingly focused on Tesla’s technological developments rather than raw delivery numbers. UBS analyst Joseph Spak suggests that while Tesla might miss delivery consensus by 1%, the significance of quarterly delivery figures has diminished as investor attention shifts toward the company’s artificial intelligence initiatives and Conducción autónoma total technology.

This evolving narrative is reflected in Tesla’s stock performance, which has surged approximately 70% year-to-date despite the likely delivery shortfall. The market’s reaction to the upcoming delivery report, expected around January 2, 2025, will provide insight into whether investors truly value Tesla’s technological promises over traditional metrics of automotive success.

The broader context suggests Tesla’s challenges extend beyond simple delivery numbers. The company faces intensifying competition in Europa, where Chinese EV brands are projected to capture nearly 10% market share by 2034, up from 2.5% in 2023. This shifting competitive landscape, combined with Tesla’s strategic pivot toward AI and automation, indicates that 2025 may require more than just delivery growth to maintain the company’s market position.

For Tesla, missing its 2024 delivery target, while symbolically significant, may matter less than how effectively it can execute on its broader technological ambitions. The company’s ability to balance traditional automotive metrics with its expansive vision for the future will likely define its success in the coming year.