China’s EV Exports Surge 87% Globally, But the Real Story Is the 2,367% Explosion to Mexico

I’ve been tracking the “Chinese EV Invasion” narrative for years now, and this new data from China Customs finally reveals exactly how it’s playing out: not through US ports, but through America’s southern border.

While mainstream coverage focuses on the headline 87% year-over-year surge to 199,836 EVs exported globally in November, the number that matters is buried in the destination breakdown. Bloomberg reports that exports to Mexico exploded 2,367% year-over-year to 19,344 units, making it the single largest destination for Chinese EVs in November.

Meanwhile, direct exports to Northern America (US and Canada) collapsed 46% to just 686 vehicles for the month and are down 73% year-to-date.

That’s not random market variation. That’s a strategic repositioning around tariff walls.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Here’s what China Customs data shows for November 2025:

By region, Asia led with 110,061 vehicles (+71% Y/Y), followed by Europe at 42,927 (+63%) and Latin America/Caribbean at 35,182 (+283%).

The Tariff Wall Is Working, But There’s a Backdoor

The collapse in direct US exports confirms what we already knew: the 100% tariff on Chinese EVs imposed under Biden and maintained by Trump has effectively shut Chinese manufacturers out of the American market through conventional channels.

But that 2,367% surge to Mexico tells the second half of the story.

Chinese automakers, led by BYD, have spent 2025 flooding Mexico with vehicles. BYD alone sold approximately 40,000 vehicles in Mexico in 2024, accounting for nearly half of all EV and plug-in hybrid sales in the country. By August 2025, the company reported 80,000 cumulative sales over two years.

The strategy is straightforward: if you can’t sell directly to American consumers, stockpile inventory next door while the regulatory picture develops.

Why This Matters for American Buyers

"(《世界人权宣言》) BYD factory plans for Mexico have been a roller coaster. After initially announcing a 150,000-unit plant, BYD shelved the project in July 2025 when Executive Vice President Stella Li cited “geopolitical issues significantly impacting the automotive industry.” Trump’s threatened 200% tariffs on Chinese vehicles assembled in Mexico made the investment untenable.

But by November 2025, BYD signaled a potential reversal. Corporate Vice President Julian Villarroel told reporters at Expo Transporte 2025 that the company is “here to stay” in Mexico and that an official announcement on manufacturing could come before January 2026. The company is simultaneously lobbying Mexican lawmakers to exempt EVs from a proposed 50% tariff on imports from countries without trade agreements.

For American EV shoppers, this creates an unusual dynamic. Chinese EVs remain effectively unavailable in the US due to tariffs, but the massive inventory buildup in Mexico suggests manufacturers are positioning for eventual access, whether through policy changes, USMCA renegotiations, or manufacturing within Mexico under the trade agreement.

The Regional Picture

The data confirms that Chinese manufacturers are successfully pivoting to markets without tariff barriers:

• Southeast Asia is booming: Indonesia (+302%), Malaysia (+273%), and Thailand (+66%) are absorbing massive volumes
• Europe remains contested: EU exports rose 39% to 25,792 units despite tariffs of up to 45.3%, though minimum pricing negotiations continue
• Latin America is the growth story: The region posted +283% growth, with Brazil emerging alongside Mexico as a key market

As we’ve previously reported, Chinese car imports now account for nearly one-fifth of total new car sales in Mexico, surpassing shipments from the US, Brazil, India, and Japan. The country emerged as the world’s largest destination for Chinese cars in the first four months of 2025.

EVXL’s Take

Here’s what I expect: the Mexico stockpile strategy will intensify through early 2026 as manufacturers race ahead of potential Mexican tariffs. If Mexico implements its proposed 50% duty on Chinese EVs, we’ll see a dramatic slowdown. If BYD secures an exemption or establishes local manufacturing, the flood continues.

For American buyers hoping Chinese competition will eventually bring prices down, this data is both encouraging and frustrating. The tariff wall is working to block direct competition, but the pressure is building just south of the border. The 2026 USMCA review will be critical in determining whether that pressure eventually translates into American market access.

The bigger picture: China’s documented overcapacity problems and the pressure to export excess inventory aren’t going away. The 87% global export surge reflects manufacturers desperately seeking any market that will accept their vehicles. Mexico just happens to be the most strategically valuable one.

Are you watching Chinese EV prices in Mexico and wondering when they might affect US availability? Let us know in the comments.