根据最近的彭博社据美国《世界日报》报道，2024 年美国电动汽车（EV）销售的低迷开端可能并不像最初看起来那么令人担忧。虽然一些指标表明可能会出现放缓，但另一些指标则表明该行业即将迎来下一个增长高峰。

2024 年第一季度的混合信号

In the first quarter of 2024, US EV sales were flat compared to the previous year. This, coupled with Ford scaling back expansion plans and Tesla laying off 10% of its global workforce, painted a grim picture. However, a closer look reveals that six of the ten biggest EV makers in the US saw sales grow significantly, ranging from 56% at Hyundai-Kia to 86% at Ford.

考克斯汽车公司（Cox Automotive）行业洞察总监斯蒂芬妮-瓦尔迪兹-斯特里蒂（Stephanie Valdez-Streaty）认为，这种差异是由于消费者对电池续航能力更强、充电速度更快、价格更具竞争力的品牌趋之若鹜。新车发布的延迟也是造成市场放缓的原因之一。

通用汽车有望实现大幅增长

General Motors and Tesla had the worst start to the year, largely due to product cycles. GM discontinued its popular Chevy Bolt before replacements were ready, while Tesla’s Model 3 production was interrupted for a design facelift. Despite these setbacks, GM is expected to drive significant EV growth in the US for the remainder of 2024, with the introduction of affordable SUVs and pickups boasting impressive range.

Tesla’s Uncertain Future

Tesla, responsible for half of the US EV market, relies heavily on the Model 3 and Model Y for 95% of its sales. The company’s calendar of new vehicle launches is essentially blank, apart from the aspirational Roadster and vague hints of more affordable models next year. The uncertainty surrounding Tesla’s high-speed Superchargers in the US, following the firing of its 500-person Supercharger staff, adds to the ambiguity of the company’s future.

Us Ev Sales Slowdown: Just A Blip Or A Bust?

大规模生产是关键

As Tesla stumbles, other EV makers have an opportunity to gain market share. However, some automakers are holding back investments until there’s more market clarity. Analysts suggest that aggressively introducing affordable EV models to build economies of scale is the way forward. Hyundai, GM, and Ford are each on track to reach the 100,000 threshold of mass production this year, potentially signaling a turning point for US EV competition.

未来依然光明

尽管人们认为美国电动汽车销售放缓，但对美国电动汽车销售的长期预测仍然乐观。国际能源机构预计，到 2025 年，美国全电动汽车的销量将从去年的 110 万辆飙升至 250 万辆。预计今年美国和全球电动汽车销量将增长约 20%，虽然比美国 2023 年 46% 的增长速度要慢，但仍然令人印象深刻。

EVXL’s Take

The US EV market is experiencing growing pains, but the future remains promising. As more automakers introduce affordable, long-range EVs and invest in charging infrastructure, the industry is poised for significant growth. The temporary slowdown in sales growth should not be mistaken for a lack of demand or interest in electric vehicles. Instead, it is a natural part of the market’s evolution as it matures and becomes more competitive. With continued investment and innovation, the US EV market is set to thrive in the coming years.

图片由特斯拉、彭博社和 COX Automotive 提供。