VW ID.Cross Spotted Undisguised, But ‘Affordable’ EV Is Still 18 Months Away While BYD Dominates

We’ve reported on Volkswagen’s “affordable EV” promises for years now, and I’ve learned to translate corporate timelines into reality. When VW says the ID.Cross is coming “mid-2026,” I hear “maybe late 2026, if nothing else goes wrong at a company that just posted a €1.3 billion quarterly loss.”

New spy photos from Auto Express show the ID.Cross testing nearly undisguised in Europe, revealing a production-ready compact electric SUV that closely matches the concept VW unveiled at Munich in September. The vehicle looks good. The timing does not.

• What: VW ID.Cross compact electric SUV spotted without camouflage
• When: Mid-2026 launch, 18+ months away
• Price: “Expected below the ID.4” (currently €35,000/$41,000), no firm number announced
• Range: 420 km WLTP (261 miles), approximately 220 miles real-world
• Why it matters: BYD is already selling the Dolphin Surf at €22,990 today

The Eight-Year Journey From Concept to Production

Here’s what most outlets covering this story won’t tell you: Volkswagen first showed a compact electric crossover concept called the ID. Crozz at the 2017 Shanghai Auto Show. That was eight years ago. Back then, VW promised a “whole host” of affordable EVs would hit the market in the “first part of this decade.”

We’re now approaching 2026, and VW still hasn’t delivered a single affordable electric vehicle to European or American consumers. The ID.3, ID.4, and ID.Buzz all launched at premium prices that put them out of reach for mainstream buyers. The ID.Buzz starts at $60,000 in the US, a far cry from the affordable nostalgia-mobile VW originally promised.

The ID.Cross concept shown at Munich in September 2025 featured dimensions of 4,161 mm long, 1,839 mm wide, and 1,588 mm tall, with a 2,601 mm wheelbase. That makes it roughly the size of the current gas-powered T-Cross, one of VW’s best-selling models in Europe. The interior promises a 13-inch infotainment screen e 11-inch digital instrument cluster, with 450 liters of cargo space and flat-folding rear seats.

VW design boss Andreas Mindt called the new entry-level EVs the company’s “secret sauce” with a “new and improved look.” It’s the kind of marketing language that sounds great in press releases but doesn’t address the fundamental question: Why should buyers wait 18 months for a VW when they can buy a BYD today?

VW’s Financial Crisis Makes the Timeline Even More Uncertain

The spy photos emerge against a backdrop of existential crisis at Volkswagen. As we reported in October, VW posted a €1.3 billion ($1.4 billion) operating loss for Q3 2025, the company’s first quarterly loss since the pandemic. Europe’s biggest carmaker swung from €2.8 billion profit in the same quarter last year to deep red ink.

The German automaker is now considering closing factories in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history. Labor disputes continue. Sales in China, once VW’s golden goose, have collapsed as domestic EV makers like BYD have eaten the company’s lunch. VW now trails Chinese brands in what was historically its most profitable market.

This financial pressure creates real questions about whether the ID.Cross will actually arrive on schedule and at a competitive price. VW’s software division Cariad has already caused years of delays and billions in losses. The company’s Rivian partnership was supposed to solve those problems, but now VW is even suggesting that technology could power gas engines instead of EVs.

BYD Already Won This Race

While VW talks about affordable EVs coming in 2026, BYD launched the Dolphin Surf in Europe in May 2025 with pricing starting at €22,990 ($26,100). That’s roughly €12,000 less than where VW’s ID.Cross is expected to land.

The results speak for themselves. BYD has overtaken Tesla in the UK market, registering almost seven times more new cars than Tesla last month. European sales surged 398% year-over-year in September 2025 while VW’s market share declined. BYD’s Seal U compact SUV, a direct competitor to the ID.Cross, saw sales jump 833% year-over-year.

Como we reported when the Dolphin Surf launched, BYD’s regional managing director Maria Grazia Davino stated: “The compact segment is the next frontier for electrification in Europe. We think this market has huge potential.” She’s right, and BYD is already there while VW is still testing prototypes.

The pricing gap tells the real story. An International Energy Agency report from May 2025 revealed that 39% of EV models in China were priced under $25,000 in 2024, compared to just 3% of models in Europe reaching that price point. VW’s ID.Cross, even if it launches “below” the €35,000 ID.4, will still price most European buyers out of the market.

EVXL’s Take

I’ve been tracking VW’s “affordable EV” promises since the ID. Crozz concept in 2017. Eight years later, the goalposts keep moving, the timelines keep slipping, and Chinese competitors keep gaining ground.

The ID.Cross looks like a capable compact electric SUV. The design has evolved from VW’s awkward early ID styling into something more conventionally attractive. The specs are reasonable: 261 miles of WLTP range (figure 200-220 miles real-world), 208 horsepower, decent cargo space, and the ability to tow 2,600 pounds.

But none of that matters if VW can’t deliver it at a competitive price, and the company’s refusal to announce pricing 18 months before launch tells you everything you need to know. They don’t know if they can make the math work. When BYD can sell a comparable vehicle today for €22,990 and VW is hedging around “below €35,000” for a vehicle that doesn’t exist yet, the writing is on the wall.

Here’s what I expect: VW will launch the ID.Cross in late 2026 at a price between €28,000 and €32,000, positioning it as “affordable” by European legacy automaker standards but still €5,000 to €10,000 more expensive than Chinese alternatives. By then, BYD will have iterated again, and VW will announce another “even more affordable” EV coming in 2028.

For buyers considering the compact electric SUV segment, here’s the uncomfortable truth: if you need an affordable EV today, VW doesn’t have one for you. The EU is working on new regulations to enable €15,000-€20,000 EVs, but that’s still years away from production reality.

VW’s “secret sauce” might taste fine when it finally arrives. But by mid-2026, the affordable EV market in Europe will already have a clear winner, and it won’t be German.

Are you waiting for an affordable EV from a legacy automaker, or have you already moved on to Chinese brands? Let us know in the comments.