Tata Motors predicts India will reach EV-gasoline price parity by 2030, but the company is watching its market share get sliced in half as Tesla, VinFast, and Chinese competitors pile into one of the world’s last remaining growth markets, Bloomberg reports.

The timing could not be more brutal. As China’s EV market drowns in overcapacity and Europe’s sales stagnate, India has emerged as the rare bright spot where electric vehicle adoption is actually accelerating.

India’s EV Share Doubles in One Year

Electric models now account for more than 5% of new car sales in India, up from just 2.5% a year earlier, Tata Motors CEO Shailesh Chandra told Bloomberg at the launch of the new Tata Sierra SUV on Tuesday.

“It’s a good thing because that is what is creating excitement in the market,” Chandra said of the flood of new competitors. “A set of competitive products from multiple brands builds confidence in the category.”

That’s a remarkably diplomatic spin on what the numbers actually show: Tata is getting crushed.

Tata’s Market Share Collapse

Between January and August 2025, Tata’s EV market share plummeted to 35% from 59% in the same period last year, according to a BloombergNEF report dated October 3.

JSW MG Motor India, a joint venture between India’s JSW Group and China’s SAIC Motor, now commands 30% of the market, up from 25% last year. Mahindra & Mahindra has captured 22.6% as of August.

The three companies together control over 87% of India’s electric passenger vehicle market. But the leadership dynamics are shifting fast.

Tata’s comfortable dominance is evaporating precisely as global heavyweights arrive to compete for what remains a tiny but rapidly expanding prize.

Tesla and VinFast Join the Fight

Tesla opened its first Indian showroom in Mumbai on July 15, with a second location in New Delhi following later that month. The American automaker is selling made-in-China EVs, having declined India’s push for local manufacturing despite incentives offering reduced import duties.

Vietnam’s VinFast is also entering the fray, with an India factory slated to begin operations soon. The company has been negotiating a $200 million loan from Indian lenders to finance its expansion into the subcontinent’s massive car market.

Both companies join a growing roster that includes homegrown players and Chinese rivals spanning the full price spectrum, from budget hatchbacks to luxury SUVs.

The 2030 Price Parity Promise

Chandra predicts entry-level EVs will match gasoline car prices by 2030 while offering around 400 kilometers (249 miles) of range.

Currently, affordable EVs cost 25-30% more than their gasoline equivalents and deliver under 300 kilometers (186 miles) per charge. That gap is closing as automakers integrate components beyond lithium-ion cells into compact modules.

“What used to be multiple separate parts are now being merged into single units,” Chandra said. “The industry has moved from one function in one unit to several combined in one, which is driving down costs.”

Tata Motors, which also owns Jaguar Land Rover, expects nearly one-third of its total sales to come from EVs by 2030. The company aims to reclaim 45-50% market share through a broader product lineup spanning mass-market and premium segments.

The new Tata Sierra, a revival of the cult 1990s SUV positioned as a “premium mid-SUV,” will receive an electric version in early 2026.

Headwinds Beyond Competition

India’s EV momentum faces resistance from multiple directions.

Hyundai Motor and Kia are preparing hybrid offerings for the Indian market, providing a practical middle ground for consumers worried about charging infrastructure. India’s charging network remains sparse compared to developed markets.

The government also implemented consumption tax cuts on petrol cars in September, making conventional gasoline vehicles cheaper at the worst possible time for EV adoption.

Still, BloombergNEF projects India’s EV sales could exceed 650,000 units by 2030 as battery prices decline and more models enter the market.

EVXL’s Take

Tata Motors’ optimistic rhetoric about competition “building confidence” masks a brutal reality: the company that pioneered India’s EV market is watching its first-mover advantage dissolve in real-time.

This story is significant because India represents something increasingly rare in the global EV landscape: a market that’s actually growing. When we covered Europe’s EV sales plunge in June, the contrast with emerging Asian markets was already becoming clear. China’s market is saturated with 129 brands fighting over scraps, and the brutal consolidation we’ve documented will leave only 15 survivors by 2030.

India is the last major battleground where the EV war hasn’t already been decided.

The irony of Chandra’s position is striking. He’s celebrating competition while his company hemorrhages market share. Tata’s slide from 59% to 35% in just eight months signals that being first doesn’t guarantee being best when well-funded competitors show up with aggressive pricing and fresh products.

Tesla’s entry adds another dimension. When we reported on India’s EV policy and Tesla’s hesitation to manufacture locally, the American automaker seemed content to sit out India’s nascent market. Now it’s selling imported Chinese-made vehicles while Indian regulators watch and wait.

VinFast’s arrival is perhaps more telling. As we covered just days ago, VinFast’s losses nearly doubled to $911 million as its premium pricing strategy collapses against Chinese competition. The Vietnamese automaker is betting that India’s price-sensitive consumers will respond better than Americans did. Given VinFast’s negative 56% gross margins, that’s a gamble funded entirely by billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong’s personal fortune.

The broader pattern here connects directly to what we’ve been documenting about subsidy-dependent EV markets facing reality. India never had the massive government incentives that distorted Western markets. Its EV adoption is growing on fundamentals: falling costs, improving technology, and genuine consumer demand.

That makes India a natural experiment in whether EVs can succeed without artificial support. The 5% market share isn’t impressive by Chinese or European standards, but it doubled in one year without $7,500 tax credits propping up demand.

Tata’s 2030 vision of price parity might arrive faster than expected if competition continues intensifying. The question is whether Tata will still be leading when it does.

For now, India’s EV market remains a story of potential rather than achievement. But with every major global automaker now circling, the sleepy 2.5% market share of just 12 months ago is about to become unrecognizable.