Ford Motor Company declined to provide any timeline for restarting production of the F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck, fueling speculation that the automaker may permanently discontinue its flagship EV amid mounting losses and weakening demand following the September 30 federal tax credit expiration.

The non-answer arrives days after The Wall Street Journal reported that Ford executives are in “active discussions about scrapping” the Lightning entirely. While Ford maintains the truck remains America’s best-selling electric pickup, the company’s carefully worded statements avoid any commitment to the Lightning’s long-term future.

Production Halted Since October With No Restart Date

Ford paused F-150 Lightning production at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan in October 2025, officially citing an aluminum shortage following a September 16 fire at supplier Novelis’ plant in Oswego, New York. The facility supplied roughly 40% of automotive aluminum sheet used by U.S. automakers and won’t return to full operation until early 2026.

But Ford’s response to the shortage revealed where the company’s priorities truly lie. Rather than waiting for aluminum supplies to restart Lightning production, Ford immediately prioritized conventional F-150 and F-150 Hybrid manufacturing, adding shifts at its Dearborn Truck Plant to boost gas-powered truck output.

“F-150 Lightning is the best-selling electric pickup truck in the U.S. — despite new competition from CyberTruck, Chevy, GMC, Hummer and Rivian — and delivered record sales in Q3,” Ford spokesperson Ian Thibodeau said in a statement to CNBC. “Right now, we’re focused on producing F-150 ICE and Hybrid as we recover from the fire at Novelis. We have good inventories of the F-150 Lightning and will bring Rouge Electric Vehicle Center back up at the right time, but don’t have an exact date at this time.”

The carefully parsed response—emphasizing “best-selling” status while avoiding any production timeline—left industry analysts interpreting the vague language as evidence Ford may never restart Lightning manufacturing.

Active Cancellation Discussions

The Wall Street Journal reported November 6 that Ford management is in active discussions about permanently discontinuing the F-150 Lightning. While no final decision has been made, the deliberations mark a dramatic reversal for a vehicle Ford once compared to Henry Ford’s Model T as a revolutionary product that would transform transportation.

“There is simply no demand for the F-150 Lightning and other full-size trucks,” Adam Kraushaar, owner of the Lester Glenn Auto Group in New Jersey, told the Journal. “We don’t order many of them because we can’t sell them.”

The Lightning’s sales performance supports that assessment. Ford sold just 24,577 Lightnings through October 2025—essentially flat compared to 2024 despite the truck initially receiving over 200,000 non-binding reservations. October 2025 sales reached only 1,500 units, down 24% year-over-year, according to Electrive.

Since launching in May 2022, Ford has sold fewer than 100,000 Lightning trucks total.

Model E Division Losses Exceed $3.6 Billion in 2025

Ford’s electric vehicle struggles extend far beyond the Lightning. The company’s Model E division lost $1.4 billion in the third quarter of 2025 alone—worse than the $1.2 billion loss in the same period last year. Through the first nine months of 2025, Model E losses reached $3.6 billion, contributing to cumulative EV losses exceeding $13 billion since 2023.

The Novelis fire is expected to reduce Ford’s overall earnings by $1.5 billion to $2 billion, but the company’s decision to prioritize aluminum for profitable gas-powered trucks while leaving the Lightning idle reveals the business calculation behind the production halt.

Ford’s traditional gas and commercial vehicle divisions remain solidly profitable. Ford Blue, its internal combustion engine business, earned $1.5 billion before interest and taxes in Q3. Ford Pro, the commercial vehicle and logistics services division, earned nearly $2 billion. Those profits subsidize the massive EV losses—a dynamic that becomes harder to justify as losses mount.

David Whiston, an analyst at Morningstar, told reporters: “Given weak EV demand, the Lightning long in the tooth, the need for more ICE F-150 capacity to make up for the Novelis fire, and a new generation EV truck in the works, it’s not shocking to see the rumor.”

Post-Tax Credit Market Reality Sets In

The elimination of federal EV incentives has fundamentally altered the economics for both buyers and manufacturers. Congress passed legislation in July 2025 terminating both the $7,500 tax credit for new EVs and the $4,000 credit for used EVs effective September 30. The credits had been a cornerstone of U.S. EV policy since 2008.

Without the tax credit, a $65,000 Lightning effectively costs buyers $72,500—a price point that makes gas-powered F-150s significantly more attractive to traditional truck buyers who prioritize capability and value over environmental considerations.

The Lightning’s value proposition always rested on federal subsidies bridging the gap between electric and conventional pricing. Industry analysts predict sustained sales declines as the post-incentive market reality sets in for expensive electric trucks and SUVs.

Industry-Wide Electric Truck Retreat

The Lightning’s troubles reflect broader challenges across the electric pickup segment. Ram parent Stellantis canceled plans for a fully electric Ram 1500 earlier this year, instead moving forward with an extended-range EV that includes a gas engine to recharge the battery.

The Wall Street Journal also cited sources saying General Motors executives have discussed discontinuing some electric trucks. Tesla’s stainless steel Cybertruck, which briefly outsold the Lightning in 2024, has seen sales plummet in recent months. EV startup Rivian has cut jobs this year as it struggles to reach profitability.

“We’re seeing a tremendous amount of competition,” Ford CFO John Lawler said in explaining the company’s August 2024 cancellation of a three-row electric SUV. “In fact, S&P Global … said that there’s about 143 EVs in the pipeline right now for North America — and most of those are two-row and three-row SUVs.”

That competition intensified precisely as demand softened, creating a supply-demand mismatch that has left automakers scrambling to adjust production plans and investment priorities.

EVXL’s Take

This story was inevitable, and EVXL has been documenting the trajectory for months. Back in May 2025, we noted the Lightning was still beating the Cybertruck in quarterly registrations—7,913 versus 7,126. That seeming victory masked the underlying reality: both trucks were struggling, and the Lightning was only “winning” in a market that barely existed.

When the Novelis fire hit in September, Ford’s response revealed everything. The company immediately prioritized aluminum for profitable gas-powered F-150s while the electric Lightning sat idle. That wasn’t a supply chain decision—it was a business reality check. The Model E division had already lost $1.4 billion in Q3 2025 alone, and Ford couldn’t justify feeding scarce materials into a money-losing product.

The September 30 tax credit expiration simply accelerated the inevitable. Without $7,500 in federal subsidies, the Lightning’s value proposition collapsed. A $72,500 electric truck can’t compete with gas F-150s starting at $40,000 that actually tow, haul, and refuel in five minutes at any gas station in America.

Ford CEO Jim Farley’s recent warning that Chinese automakers could “put us all out of business” takes on new meaning in this context. While Ford hemorrhages money on electric trucks American buyers don’t want at these prices, BYD and other Chinese manufacturers are producing profitable EVs at price points that would devastate Western automakers if tariffs ever fell.

The broader question is whether Ford will proceed with its planned second-generation electric pickup for production at BlueOval City in Tennessee starting in 2028. Given the massive losses from its current EV portfolio and the clear preference among F-150 buyers for gas and hybrid powertrains, that $5.6 billion investment looks increasingly questionable.

Ford’s “no exact date” response isn’t about aluminum shortages or supply chain logistics. It’s about facing a market that never materialized for $65,000 electric pickups without government subsidies propping up demand. The Lightning may have been Ford’s Model T moment—just not in the revolutionary way executives imagined.

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