Rivian Faces $100 Million Revenue Loss as Fuel Economy Credit Program Stalls

One paused letter, nine figures on hold. Rivian says NHTSA’s paperwork freeze has iced $100 million in credit deals.

Electric truck maker Rivian is bracing for a $100 million revenue shortfall after the Trump administration halted the issuance of compliance paperwork tied to U.S. fuel economy rules. The pause has frozen a regulatory credit market that has been a reliable source of income for electric vehicle manufacturers, leaving Rivian and others unable to finalize lucrative deals with traditional automakers, reports The WSJ.

Credit Trading Comes to a Halt

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) confirmed it has stopped issuing so-called compliance letters—documents that certify whether automakers meet or violate Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards—while it reassesses the rules.

“NHTSA is focusing on fixing CAFE standards to make cars more affordable again,” a spokesperson said. “When that process is complete, we will return to issuing compliance letters to manufacturers.”

The pause is part of a broader move to reverse Biden-era regulations that set stricter mileage targets and higher penalties for violations. Under those rules, automakers would have been required to achieve a fleetwide average of 50.4 miles per gallon by model year 2031.

Financial Strain on EV Makers

For Rivian, credits accounted for 6.5% of its total revenue in the first half of 2025, and the company has earned more than $400 million from credits since going public in 2021.

Christopher Nevers, Rivian’s director of public policy, said in a petition that the company “already had negotiated regulatory credit deals that it can’t finalize.”

Tesla, the largest U.S. EV manufacturer, is even more exposed. In its most recent earnings report, the company said regulatory actions have caused a $1.1 billion decrease in expected credit-selling revenue. Since 2008, Tesla has made more than $12 billion globally from these sales.

Lucid Motors has also warned that credits represent a “significant share” of its revenue, though the company noted the impact was smaller in its latest quarter.

Industry Pushback and Legal Action

The Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA), an EV trade group whose members include Rivian and Lucid, has filed a petition with the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., to force NHTSA to resume issuing compliance certifications. These documents are essential for automakers to prove they meet federal fuel economy rules and to sell credits to companies with less efficient fleets.

“The underlying rationale of credit trading is to try to reduce overall compliance costs for an industry,” said Joshua Linn, a University of Maryland professor who researches transportation environmental policy.

Winners and Losers

While EV makers face immediate revenue hits, some traditional automakers stand to benefit. General Motors has spent at least $3.5 billion since 2022 buying credits to meet global regulations, and Ford entered agreements last year to purchase roughly $4.3 billion worth. A reduction in penalties and credit requirements could lower their costs.

NHTSA has not set a timeline for completing its review of CAFE standards. Until then, the freeze on compliance paperwork continues to disrupt an important financial mechanism for companies navigating the transition to cleaner transportation.