テスラ stock showed signs of recovery on Monday, April 14, 2025, rising 3.4% to $260.92 in early trading after President Donald Trump excluded smartphones and certain electronics from his most severe import tariffs. This positive movement occurs during a challenging period for the electric vehicle manufacturer, whose shares have declined approximately 38% year-to-date and remain down 11% since the April 2 tariff announcement, according to reporting from Barron’s.

Tariff Relief Provides Temporary Boost

The broader market also responded positively to the tariff exemptions, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.1% in early trading.

While Tesla benefited from Trump’s Friday decision to exclude certain electronics from “reciprocal” import tariffs, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated on Sunday that tariffs on the semiconductor sector were still forthcoming, suggesting continued market volatility ahead.

Tesla’s relative insulation from direct automotive import tariffs stems from its domestic production model. As Barron’s notes, “Tesla doesn’t import any of the cars it sells in the U.S., so it suffers less of an impact from tariffs than most auto makers.” Nevertheless, the company remains vulnerable to tariffs affecting components and parts used in its manufacturing process.

Analyst Perspectives Show Sharp Divide

Wall Street remains notably divided on Tesla’s prospects, with dramatically contrasting viewpoints from prominent analysts and investors:

RBC Capital: Cautiously Optimistic

RBC analyst Tom Narayan maintains a “Buy” rating with a $314 price target for Tesla shares, recently cutting his target by $6. According to Barron’s, Narayan believes Tesla’s Q1 results “could benefit from pre-buy in March ahead of tariffs” and notes that both フォード Motor and General Motors reported solid first-quarter U.S. sales.

“Expectations are already quite low, and any positive news could result in upside to shares,” Narayan stated according to the Barron’s report. He identifies Tesla’s upcoming “new affordable model coming in Q2 as well as the Austin robotaxi service coming in June” as potential positive catalysts that could drive share price recovery.

Cevian Capital: Predicting Substantial Decline

In stark contrast, Swedish billionaire and hedge fund manager Christer Gardell of Cevian Capital has issued a warning predicting Tesla stock could experience a dramatic 95% collapse, according to reporting from tipranks.com.

Gardell characterized Tesla’s current valuation as “incomprehensible,” citing weakening demand, controversies surrounding イーロン・マスク, and production disappointments with the サイバートラック as major concerns. The tipranks.com report notes that Gardell emphasized Tesla’s valuation exceeds three times that of major automakers like トヨタそしてフォルクスワーゲン, despite recent sales declines across all major markets.

According to the report, the Cybertruck has particularly underperformed expectations, with current sales figures reportedly below 10% of Musk’s initially projected 500,000 annual units, forcing Tesla to revise financing options and offer more competitive interest rates.

Schwab: Relatively Strong Position

Adding a third perspective, Schwab Network Correspondent George Tsilis offered a more favorable outlook, stating Tesla “has been holding up quite well over the past couple of weeks” and may be less exposed to international economic factors than other major tech companies, according to reporting from Larry Ramer.

Current Analyst Consensus

The broader analyst community maintains a neutral stance on Tesla stock. According to data from tipranks.com, TSLA has received a “Hold” consensus rating, with 16 Buys, 11 Holds, and 11 Sells assigned in the last three months. The average price target currently sits at $305.93, suggesting a potential upside of 21.3% from current levels.

This average masks significant disagreement, with price targets ranging from a bullish $465 high to a bearish $120 low over the next 12 months.

Q1 Performance and Future Catalysts

Tesla’s recent performance has fallen short of expectations as the company delivered approximately 337,000 cars in the first quarter of 2025, representing a 13% decline year-over-year and approximately 40,000 fewer vehicles than Wall Street anticipated.

Looking ahead, analysts point to several potential catalysts that could impact Tesla’s stock performance:

The upcoming Q1 earnings report expected in the next few days
The launch of a new affordable model in Q2 2025
The Austin robotaxi service planned for June 2025
Ongoing developments in tariff policies affecting the automotive sector

EVXL’s Take

The current Tesla stock situation presents a fascinating study in market polarization. While the immediate tariff exclusions provide temporary relief, the fundamental question remains whether Tesla should be valued as a traditional automaker or a technology company with transformative potential.

The divergent analyst opinions reflect legitimate concerns about production challenges and market saturation, but also acknowledge Tesla’s continued innovation and first-mover advantage in the EV space. For investors, the key metrics to watch in the upcoming earnings report will be gross margins, delivery guidance for Q2, and any concrete updates on the affordable model and robotaxi service.

Given Tesla’s historical volatility and the current geopolitical environment affecting global supply chains, investors should prepare for continued price fluctuations while focusing on the company’s technological roadmap and execution capabilities rather than short-term market reactions.

As market observers, we find the extreme bearish case of a 95% collapse unlikely given Tesla’s cash position and market leadership, but equally view the most optimistic projections with healthy skepticism until production and demand trends show sustained improvement.