Ford F-150 Lightning Faces Cancellation As Post-Tax Credit Reality Hits Home

Ford Motor Company executives are actively discussing whether to permanently discontinue the F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck, according to a Wall Street Journal report published November 6, 2025. The deliberations mark a dramatic reversal for a vehicle Ford once compared to Henry Ford’s Model T and position the Lightning as potentially the first major casualty of the federal EV tax credit’s September 30 expiration.

The news arrives as Ford’s Model E electric vehicle division hemorrhages money and production remains halted following a September fire at key aluminum supplier Novelis. While no final decision has been made, the discussions reveal how quickly market conditions have shifted for automakers banking on large, expensive electric vehicles to drive their electrification strategies.

Lightning Production Halted, Future Uncertain

Ford paused F-150 Lightning production at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan in October 2025, officially citing the Novelis aluminum shortage. The company prioritized conventional F-150 and F-150 Hybrid production instead, revealing where profits truly lie. Ford COO Kumar Galhotra told media the company would restart Lightning production “at the right time” but declined to provide any timeline.

“F-150 Lightning is the best-selling electric pickup truck in the U.S. — despite new competition from CyberTruck, Chevy, GMC, Hummer and Rivian — and delivered record sales in Q3,” Ford spokesperson Ian Thibodeau said in a statement to CNBC. “Right now, we’re focused on producing F-150 ICE and Hybrid as we recover from the fire at Novelis. We have good inventories of the F-150 Lightning and will bring Rouge Electric Vehicle Center back up at the right time, but don’t have an exact date at this time.”

The carefully worded response notably avoids any commitment to the Lightning’s long-term future. Industry analysts interpreted the vague timeline as evidence Ford may never restart production.

Mounting Losses Drive Discontinuation Discussions

Ford’s Model E division has lost $3.6 billion through the first nine months of 2025, contributing to $13 billion in cumulative EV losses since 2023. The Lightning itself has consistently lost money on every unit sold despite starting at $54,780, with many models selling for upwards of $80,000.

The financial pain intensified immediately after the federal EV tax credit expired on September 30. In October 2025—the first full month without the $7,500 incentive—Ford’s overall EV sales plummeted 24% year-over-year. Lightning sales specifically dropped 17% to roughly 1,500 units, according to the Detroit News.

Since launching in May 2022, Ford has sold fewer than 100,000 Lightning trucks total through October 2025. Sales this year through October reached only 24,577 units—essentially flat compared to 2024 despite the Lightning initially receiving over 200,000 non-binding reservations that failed to convert to actual purchases.

Industry-Wide Electric Pickup Struggles

The Lightning’s troubles reflect broader challenges across the electric pickup segment. Ram parent Stellantis canceled plans for a fully electric Ram 1500 earlier this year, instead moving forward with an extended-range EV that includes a gas engine to recharge the battery. The Wall Street Journal report also cited sources saying General Motors executives have discussed discontinuing some electric trucks.

Tesla’s stainless steel Cybertruck, which briefly outsold the Lightning in 2024, has seen sales plummet in recent months. EV startup Rivian Automotive cut jobs this year as production challenges mounted. Even after the Lightning reclaimed the top spot in Q1 2025 registrations with 7,913 units versus the Cybertruck’s 7,126, the entire segment remains niche and unprofitable.

David Whiston, an analyst at Morningstar, told reporters: “Given weak EV demand, the Lightning long in the tooth, the need for more ICE F-150 capacity to make up for the Novelis fire, and a new generation EV truck in the works, it’s not shocking to see the rumor.”

Tax Credit Expiration Reshapes EV Market

The elimination of federal EV incentives has fundamentally altered the economics for both buyers and manufacturers. Congress passed legislation in July 2025 terminating both the $7,500 tax credit for new EVs and the $4,000 credit for used EVs effective September 30. The credits had been a cornerstone of U.S. EV policy since 2008, helping offset the higher upfront costs of electric vehicles.

Without the tax credit, a $65,000 Lightning effectively costs buyers $72,500—a price point that makes gas-powered F-150s significantly more attractive to traditional truck buyers. The Lightning’s value proposition always rested on federal subsidies bridging the gap between electric and conventional pricing.

Industry analysts predict sustained sales declines as the post-incentive market reality sets in. Toyota, Honda, and other manufacturers have already adjusted EV production plans downward in response to weakening demand.

Next-Generation Plans In Question

Ford had been planning a second-generation electric pickup, internally nicknamed T3, for production at its BlueOval City plant in Tennessee starting in 2028. However, the potential Lightning cancellation raises questions about whether Ford will proceed with that investment given the massive losses from its current EV portfolio.

CEO Jim Farley recently warned that Chinese automakers could “put us all out of business” with their manufacturing capacity and cost advantages. The company’s struggles to make EVs profitably while competitors like Tesla generate healthy margins suggests Ford may need to fundamentally rethink its electrification strategy rather than simply launching new models.

Ford plans to hire 1,000 workers at factories in Michigan and Kentucky to boost conventional F-150 and Super Duty production by 50,000 vehicles in 2026—a clear signal about where the company sees sustainable profits in the truck market.

EVXL’s Take

The F-150 Lightning’s potential demise tells a story that goes far beyond one vehicle. This is about the consequences of building an EV strategy around expensive, low-volume flagship products subsidized by taxpayer dollars rather than developing genuinely competitive electric vehicles that can succeed on their own merits.

EVXL has been tracking this trajectory for months. Back in May 2025, the Lightning was still beating the Cybertruck in quarterly registrations—7,913 versus 7,126. That seeming victory masked the underlying reality: both trucks were struggling, and the Lightning was only “winning” in a market that barely existed.

When the Novelis fire hit in September, Ford’s response revealed everything. The company immediately prioritized aluminum for profitable gas-powered F-150s while the electric Lightning sat idle. That wasn’t a supply chain decision—it was a business reality check. The Model E division had already lost $1.4 billion in Q3 2025 alone, and Ford couldn’t justify feeding scarce materials into a money-losing product.

The September 30 tax credit expiration simply accelerated the inevitable. Without $7,500 in federal subsidies, the Lightning’s value proposition collapsed. A well-equipped Lightning at $70,000-$80,000 competes directly with gas F-150s that cost $40,000-$50,000 and offer better range, faster refueling, and the utility truck buyers actually need. The math never worked without taxpayer support.

Ford’s predicament illustrates the fundamental flaw in U.S. EV policy that prioritized compliance and political optics over genuine market development. The Inflation Reduction Act funneled billions into expensive EVs that couldn’t compete without subsidies, creating temporary demand that evaporated the moment incentives ended. Meanwhile, Chinese competitors like BYD spent the same years building genuinely affordable EVs with profitable business models.

The broader question is whether traditional automakers can transition to electric vehicles at all. GM is quietly discussing cuts to its electric truck lineup. Stellantis canceled the electric Ram. European manufacturers are retreating from aggressive EV commitments as losses mount. Even Tesla’s market share is slipping as competition intensifies.

Ford bet billions on electric F-Series trucks being its “Model T moment”—a revolutionary product that would transform transportation. Instead, the Lightning may become the industry’s cautionary tale about the perils of subsidized electrification strategies divorced from market realities. The next-generation T3 truck planned for 2028 now looks increasingly unlikely, and Ford’s entire EV strategy faces a reckoning.

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