President Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported cars and auto parts could significantly inflate electric vehicle (EV) prices, potentially stalling the industry’s momentum in the U.S. market, according to a detailed analysis by The New York Times. However, EVs like the Tesla Modèle Y et Volkswagen ID.4, built domestically with fewer imported components, may emerge as competitive outliers, offering price stability and a market advantage for American EV buyers.

Tariffs Cast a Shadow on EV Affordability

The incoming tariffs, targeting imported vehicles and critical components like batteries and semiconductors, are poised to raise costs across the automotive sector. EVs, which rely heavily on imported raw materials such as refined graphite from Chine, face particular vulnerability. “The tariffs will raise prices for all vehicles — gasoline, electric or hybrid,” notes Jack Ewing of The New York (en anglais) Times, highlighting the risk of severe parts shortages if suppliers falter. For EV owners, this could mean sticker prices climbing even higher than the current $12,000 premium over comparable gasoline vehicles, per Cox Automotive data.

Trump'S Tariffs Threaten Ev Price Hikes, But Tesla And Vw Gain Edge With U.s. Production

Domestic Production as a Shield

Unlike their gas-powered counterparts, EVs have simpler architectures with fewer parts, theoretically easing the shift to domestic supply chains. Tesla’s Model Y, assembled in Californie et Texas, topped Cars.com’s 2024 American-made index for its high U.S. content. “We do have localized supply chains in both America, L'Europe and China,” said Tesla CEO Elon Musk during a recent analyst call, emphasizing the company’s resilience. Similarly, the Volkswagen ID.4, produced in Tennessee with Georgia-made batteries, stands to benefit. “That’s not a bad thought,” Volkswagen Group of America President Kjell Gruner remarked when asked about the ID.4’s potential edge.

Yet, challenges persist. China’s dominance in battery-grade graphite and rare earth minerals, coupled with retaliatory export restrictions, could strain supplies. “There are stockpiles already in the market which can suffice for now,” said Neha Mukherjee of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, but prolonged restrictions may drive prices higher by late 2025.

Industry Ripple Effects and Consumer Impacts

The tariffs could reshape automaker strategies, with many prioritizing profitable gasoline trucks and SUVs over loss-making EVs. This shift risks ceding ground to Chinese, South Korean, and European rivals accelerating their electric lineups. For EV enthusiasts, higher costs for vehicles and charging infrastructure—potentially impacted by tariffs on semiconductors and equipment—may exacerbate range anxiety and deter adoption. “It’s hard to figure out how you net out the massive costs potentially associated with tariffs with the need to continue to invest in the future,” said John Bozzella of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation.

EVXL’s Take

The tariff storm brewing over the EV industry feels like a gut punch to progress, threatening to widen the affordability gap just as electric driving gains traction. Yet, Tesla and Volkswagen’s domestic production offers a glimmer of hope for EV owners seeking value. Their ability to sidestep the worst of the tariff hit underscores a broader truth: investing in U.S. manufacturing isn’t just patriotic—it’s a strategic lifeline. As the industry navigates this uncertainty, buyers may find solace in brands that bet big on American soil, even if the road ahead demands patience and deeper wallets.