The United Kingdom has reached a significant milestone in its automotive history as the number of petrol-powered vehicles peaks at 18.7 million, marking the beginning of what experts predict will be a dramatic shift toward electric mobility. According to a comprehensive report from Auto Trader, this figure is expected to plummet by more than 40% over the next decade, signaling a transformative period in British transportation.

The Coming Electric Surge

Auto Trader’s forecast reveals a remarkable trajectory for electric vehicle adoption, projecting an increase from 1.25 million EVs in 2024 to an impressive 13.7 million by 2034. This surge represents what the company’s Commercial Director, Ian Plummer, describes as a “seismic shift” in British motoring. The EV market share is anticipated to climb from 18% to 23% in 2025, though this falls short of the government’s ambitious Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate targets.

Challenges and Opportunities

The transition to electric mobility faces several hurdles. The current ZEV mandate requires 22% of new car sales to be battery-electric vehicles in 2024, escalating to 80% by 2030 and reaching 100% by 2035. However, industry stakeholders have expressed concerns about the mandate’s impact on manufacturing jobs and the strain it places on automakers, particularly given the current charging infrastructure limitations across the country.

Market Dynamics and Affordability

A promising development in the EV market is the increasing accessibility of used electric vehicles. Auto Trader’s data indicates that one in three used EVs on their platform are now priced under £20,000 ($25,400). Moreover, many three- to five-year-old EVs are achieving price parity with their combustion counterparts, making the switch to electric more appealing for budget-conscious consumers.

Industry Impact

The transition hasn’t been without casualties. Recently, Stellantis announced the closure of its Luton van factory, potentially affecting 1,100 jobs, citing the stringent UK zero-emission vehicle mandate as a contributing factor. Despite these challenges, the used car market remains resilient, with sales expected to increase from 7.61 million this year to 7.7 million in 2025.

EVXL’s Take

The UK’s arrival at peak petrol represents a crucial turning point in the nation’s journey toward sustainable transportation. As we’ve seen in our coverage of Tesla’s expanding Supercharger network and Volkswagen’s commitment to affordable EVs, the industry is actively working to address both infrastructure and affordability concerns. The declining number of petrol vehicles, coupled with increasing EV accessibility, suggests we’re entering a new era of electric mobility that will reshape Britain’s automotive landscape.

What are your thoughts on this transition to electric vehicles? Share your perspective in the comments below.