Lucid Cuts 2025 Production Forecast To 18,000 As Supply Chaos And Weak Demand Squeeze Luxury EV Maker

Lucid Motors slashed its 2025 production forecast to 18,000 vehicles on Wednesday, marking the second consecutive cut in three months as the Saudi-backed luxury EV maker struggles with supply chain disruptions and collapsing post-tax-credit demand. Interim CEO Marc Winterhoff told Reuters the company would hit the lower end of its August guidance range of 18,000-20,000 vehicles, abandoning earlier hopes of reaching 20,000 units.

The announcement came alongside disappointing third-quarter results showing revenue of $336.6 million—well below Wall Street’s $379.1 million estimate—and an adjusted loss of $2.65 per share compared to expectations of $2.27. Shares fell 3% in after-hours trading despite Lucid achieving its seventh consecutive quarter of record deliveries with 4,078 vehicles handed over to customers.

Supply Chain Nightmares Derail Production Ramp

Lucid has battled a cascade of supply problems that reads like a manufacturing horror story. A fire at an aluminum supplier in September combined with persistent chip shortages and disrupted rare earth supplies to throttle production of both the Air luxury sedan and the recently launched Gravity SUV.

The company resolved some bottlenecks and added a second production shift at its Casa Grande, Arizona facility, but the damage was done. Lucid produced 9,966 completed vehicles through the first nine months of 2025, meaning it must build 8,034 units in the fourth quarter—more than doubling its third-quarter pace—just to reach the lowered target.

“We will end up at the lower end of that range,” Winterhoff said Wednesday, citing issues from chip shortage to the fire. “Even if we solve it, it doesn’t mean that it’s none.”

Six analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha expect Lucid to produce just 17,320 vehicles this year, suggesting Wall Street views even the reduced forecast as optimistic.

Tax Credit Expiration Eliminates Crucial Demand Driver

The timing couldn’t be worse. Lucid’s production struggles coincide with the September 30 expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which triggered a 24% collapse in U.S. electric vehicle sales in October. President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” eliminated the subsidy that had been instrumental in driving luxury EV purchases.

Winterhoff acknowledged that while the now-expired credit sparked a third-quarter buying frenzy, the post-subsidy landscape remains uncertain. The company expects some relief from the Trump administration’s 3.75% tariff offset for U.S.-made EVs. Chief Financial Officer Taoufiq Boussaid said tariff impacts on gross margins should decline to 8-10% in 2025, down from a crushing 21% in the second quarter.

Saudi Lifeline Expands But Questions Linger

In a bright spot, Lucid announced that the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia—its majority shareholder—agreed to increase the company’s credit facility from $750 million to approximately $2 billion. The facility remains undrawn, boosting Lucid’s total liquidity to $5.5 billion.

But that capital comes as Lucid plans $1.1-1.2 billion in capital expenditures while ramping Gravity SUV production and developing a more affordable mid-size vehicle targeted for late 2026. The company posted a net loss of $978.4 million for the quarter, bringing year-to-date losses well into the billions as its accumulated deficit continues mounting.

Pattern Of Broken Promises Erodes Credibility

This marks the latest chapter in Lucid’s long history of missed production targets. The company originally targeted approximately 20,000 vehicles for 2025 when the year began, then lowered guidance to 18,000-20,000 in August following disappointing second-quarter results.

Back in July, we reported that Lucid needed to manufacture 13,325 units in the second half to meet its 20,000-vehicle target—essentially doubling its production rate. That proved impossible.

The pattern extends back years. Lucid targeted 135,000 vehicles in early plans, produced just 7,180 in 2022, then 8,428 in 2023. In 2024, the company managed 9,029 produced and 10,241 delivered—finally hitting guidance but at dramatically reduced levels.

The Gravity SUV launch has been particularly problematic. In April, just five Gravity SUVs were registered in the U.S., down from 30 in March, as production issues and safety concerns slowed the rollout.

Strategic Moves Offer Some Hope

Lucid secured a $300 million investment from Uber during the quarter as part of a partnership to provide 20,000 Gravity SUVs for autonomous robotaxi operations with Nuro starting in 2026. The company also announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to develop Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities.

The EV maker delivered its first Gravity engineering vehicles to Nuro, with San Francisco slated as the first deployment city. Lucid has been positioning its domestic supply chain strategy as a competitive advantage, with partnerships including battery materials deals with Graphite One and battery procurement from Panasonic.

EVXL’s Take

Here’s the uncomfortable truth hiding beneath Lucid’s operational momentum language: this company is in survival mode, not growth mode. The $2 billion credit facility expansion sounds impressive until you remember Lucid’s accumulated deficit hit $13.3 billion by March 2025. This isn’t growth capital—it’s life support from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund keeping the dream alive.

We’ve been tracking Lucid’s struggles all year. In May, we documented how the Gravity launch stumbled with just 5 U.S. registrations in April despite ambitious plans. In June, the company resorted to aggressive pricing with lease deals starting at $519 per month—classic desperation moves when demand doesn’t materialize.

The broader context makes things worse. Rivian just laid off 600 employees—the third workforce reduction in four months—as it grapples with post-tax-credit reality. GM idled battery plants and cut 3,300 EV workers barely two months after the September 30 subsidy expiration. When giant automakers with decades of manufacturing expertise are retreating from EVs, what chance does a luxury startup have?

Lucid’s betting everything on the “volume solves all problems” theory that Winterhoff articulated back in August. But volume at what price? The company already burns approximately $161,000 per vehicle produced in adjusted EBITDA losses. Scaling production of $80,000+ vehicles in a post-subsidy market where October EV sales cratered 24% isn’t a strategy—it’s wishful thinking.

The mid-size vehicle planned for late 2026 might change the equation if Lucid survives that long. But banking on an affordable model two years out while burning billions annually on ultra-luxury products nobody’s buying? That’s not a roadmap to profitability. That’s a prayer wrapped in a business plan.

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