Tesla is poised to beat Wall Street expectations when it reports third-quarter earnings Wednesday, riding record vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployment. But for EV enthusiasts watching the company’s trajectory, the real story isn’t the numbers—it’s what comes next.

The electric vehicle maker delivered 497,099 vehicles in Q3, crushing analyst estimates and marking one of Tesla’s strongest quarters ever. The company also deployed a record 12.5 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products, nearly double the 6.9 GWh deployed in the same quarter last year.

Wall Street Expects A Beat, But Questions Loom Large

Analysts project revenue of $26.45 billion and earnings per share of $0.53-0.55, according to Wall Street consensus. Those figures should be easy to surpass given Tesla’s delivery performance, which came in roughly 54,000 vehicles above expectations.

Here’s the catch: while revenue is expected to hit a record high, earnings per share are projected to drop 26% from the $0.72 reported in Q3 2024. The disconnect stems from aggressive price cuts Tesla implemented to compete with rivals like BYD, plus reduced contributions from regulatory credit sales.

Even more telling, Tesla’s Q3 automotive sales estimates sit at just $20.6 billion—only $600 million higher than Q3 2024 despite delivering 34,000 more vehicles. The math doesn’t lie: Tesla is selling more cars but making less money per unit.

The Tax Credit Timing Nobody’s Talking About

Tesla’s record Q3 deliveries didn’t happen in a vacuum. The federal $7,500 EV tax credit expired September 30, 2025, and savvy buyers rushed to lock in purchases before the deadline. Deliveries in the period got a boost as customers hurried to buy cars ahead of the credit’s expiration.

CEO Elon Musk himself acknowledged this reality back in July, warning of “rough quarters” ahead as the company enters its first full quarter without the incentive. The tax credit elimination makes EVs effectively $7,500 more expensive for buyers, creating a significant headwind for Q4 and beyond.

EVXL previously reported on Tesla’s Q2 struggles, where revenue fell 12% year-over-year—the sharpest decline in at least a decade. That pattern suggests Q3’s strength may be an anomaly rather than a trend reversal.

Robo-Taxi Promises Vs. Reality Check

More than earnings, investors are laser-focused on updates about Tesla’s robo-taxi expansion and Full Self-Driving (FSD) deployment. The company launched its robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025 with a small fleet of 10-20 Model Y vehicles operating with safety drivers.

Since then, Tesla has expanded testing to nine cities nationwide, including Miami, Brooklyn, and the San Francisco Bay Area. But the service still requires human safety monitors, and Musk’s prediction that Tesla would remove supervisors by year’s end looks increasingly optimistic.

“We’re going to be extremely paranoid about the deployment, as we should be,” Musk said earlier this year. “We’ll be watching what the cars are doing very carefully.”

The company also rolled out lower-priced “Standard” versions of the Model 3 and Model Y in October, with base prices under $40,000. How those models are performing in the post-tax-credit environment will be critical information for Wednesday’s call.

Energy Storage Saves The Day Again

While automotive revenue faces pressure, Tesla’s energy business continues its breakout year. The 12.5 GWh of storage deployed in Q3 represents massive 81% growth from the prior year quarter.

The energy division grew 67% in Q1 2025, providing a crucial revenue cushion as vehicle margins compressed. Products like the Megapack (for utility-scale storage) and Powerwall (for home solar integration) are benefiting from surging demand driven by AI data centers and renewable energy expansion.

Analysts estimate the energy and services segment could generate over $3.3 billion in Q3 revenue, up nearly 39% year-over-year. For Tesla investors betting on diversification beyond cars, this growth validates the strategy.

Stock Performance Defies Fundamentals

Tesla shares are up 11% year-to-date and have surged 103% over the past 12 months—despite the company selling fewer vehicles than in 2024. The gains reflect investor focus on AI and robotics potential rather than traditional automotive metrics.

Options markets suggest shares could move 6% up or down following the earnings report, though Tesla has averaged 10% swings over the past four quarterly announcements. The stock jumped 22% after Q3 2024 results, when management projected strong Q4 deliveries that ultimately fell short.

Timing matters too: Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for November 6, just two weeks after earnings. Management will likely strike a bullish tone heading into the vote on executive compensation and board seats.

EVXL’s Take

Tesla’s Q3 numbers will look impressive in isolation—record deliveries, strong energy growth, likely earnings beat. But strip away the tax credit rush, and the picture gets murkier fast. The company essentially pulled forward demand from Q4 and Q1 2026, creating a sugar high that masks underlying challenges.

The real questions aren’t about Q3. They’re about whether Tesla can maintain pricing power without the $7,500 incentive, when robo-taxis will actually scale beyond a handful of Austin test vehicles, and how long the energy business can carry the load while automotive margins compress.

We’ve watched this pattern play out before—strong quarters followed by sharp corrections when reality doesn’t match Musk’s timelines. The Austin robo-taxi service was supposed to go unsupervised by now. FSD was supposed to solve autonomy “this year” (a promise made annually since 2019). The affordable Model 3/Y variants just launched, with no data yet on actual demand.

Wednesday’s call will reveal whether Tesla learned from those misses or if investors are being set up for another disappointment. The company’s shift from EV maker to AI/robotics company is compelling in theory—but theory doesn’t pay the bills when car sales slow and robo-taxis are still running with safety drivers.

What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments below.