Why Fully Autonomous Cars Remain Out of Reach by 2030

The dream of fully autonomous cars continues to stall, leaving electric vehicle (EV) enthusiasts and industry watchers intrigued yet cautious. Despite early optimism following the US military’s Darpa challenge two decades ago, progress toward Level 5 self-driving cars—capable of driving anywhere in all conditions—has hit significant hurdles. A Bloomberg chart projecting automation levels through 2030 shows a slow climb, with Level 4 adoption reaching only about 20 million cars by decade’s end, far from the envisioned ubiquity. This stagnation reflects technical challenges, regulatory scrutiny, and economic realities, as detailed by SAE International‘s automation framework.

Technical Barriers Slowing Full Autonomy

Achieving Level 5 autonomy demands vehicles that navigate every scenario, from dense fog to urban chaos, using an array of sensors and powerful computers. These systems, costing billions to develop, must handle split-second decisions—like choosing between swerving into an elderly couple or a child—that even human drivers find daunting. Tesla Inc.’s Elon Musk promised 1 million robotaxis by 2020, but by June 2025, only 10 to 20 Model Y cars operate under human supervision in Austin, Texas. Waymo, part of Alphabet Inc., leads with robotaxis in four US cities, yet its technology remains limited to specific conditions, highlighting the gap to universal autonomy.

Industry Trends and Setbacks

The EV sector has seen dramatic shifts. Ford Motor Co. and Volkswagen AG dissolved Argo AI in 2022, writing off a $2.7 billion investment, while General Motors Co. ended its Cruise venture after a 2023 pedestrian incident in San Francisco. Apple Inc. abandoned its $1 billion-a-year car project in 2024. Meanwhile, China’s WeRide Inc. and Baidu Inc. expand globally, with WeRide securing $100 million from Uber in May 2025 to enter Dubai and Europe. These moves signal a pivot toward Level 4 systems, like Waymo’s driverless taxis, which may lack steering wheels but operate only in defined areas.

Implications for EV Owners and Regulations

For EV owners, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) offer practical benefits—automatic braking and lane centering are now common—but full autonomy remains elusive. Mercedes-Benz Group AG’s Level 3 Drive Pilot, available for a $2,500 annual fee in parts of the US, requires no hands on the wheel under specific conditions, yet Level 5 is not forecast by 2030, per Accenture data. Regulatory pressure mounts after crashes, with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration investigating Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite following a fatal incident. This scrutiny, coupled with high development costs, suggests a cautious rollout, prioritizing safety over speed.

Future Outlook for the Industry

The industry leans toward ADAS enhancements rather than full autonomy. GM’s Super Cruise and Volvo’s lidar-equipped EX90 reflect this trend, improving safety without replacing drivers. S&P Global Mobility predicts Level 5 cars won’t arrive before 2035, a timeline Musk’s advisory role in the Trump administration might influence. For now, EV enthusiasts can expect incremental gains, with Level 2 and 3 systems dominating, as the quest for true self-driving technology continues to evolve slowly.

Autonomous Cars and Self-Driving Levels Explained

The self-driving levels explained according to SAE International.

Photos courtesy of Billy Kyle / X / EVXL